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Herbert Hoover Archive

Monday

5

November 2012

0

COMMENTS

If Obama Beat Hoover, So What?

Written by , Posted in Big Government, Economics & the Economy

You know your record as President is abysmal when supporters are reduced to touting how much better you’ve done than Herbert Hoover. But that’s where Obama is at, apparently, as historian Robert McElvaine took to the New York Times a few days ago to make exactly that case. Seeking to combat unfavorable comparisons to the pace of recovery under Obama with that of other Presidents, such as Reagan or Clinton, McElvaine dismissed them all us irrelevant and asserted that the only comparison that matters is between Obama and Hoover. And on that measure, we are told that Obama passes with flying colors!

He makes two points that I dispute: 1) That the only meaningful comparison for the recession that preceded Obama’s tenure is the crash that lead to the Great Depression, and 2) That the comparison proves Obama has done a good job on the economy. Neither is true.

McElvaine asserts that, “the most appropriate presidential term to use as a benchmark is Herbert Hoover’s. He was the last president to face an economic crisis on a scale similar to the one that confronted Obama when he took office.” But while he makes a case for comparing the two, he doesn’t explain what makes the other comparisons less valid. In particular, there is a lot that can be learned by comparing the current recovery, such that it is, to that seen under Reagan, because a case can equally be made that the early 80’s recession was as bad or worse than 2008-2009.

Both the 2008 and early 80’s recession were financially caused. Unemployment was also similar when each president took office,  at 7.5% under Reagan versus 7.8% under Obama, though joblessness peaked higher in 1982 than 2009, and Reagan had the added challenge of dealing with double digit inflation. Yet despite this Reagan did a much better job turning things around, and the economy grew an average of 5.6 percent for the first three years following the bottom of the recession he inherited, versus only 2.2 percent growth under Obama in the same time frame.

The similarity between these recessions makes the comparison valid.

But even if we accept the Hoover comparison as decisive, it doesn’t prove what McElvaine suggests. No where in his argument does he point to specific policy choices and explain how they produced the results he highlights. Sure, he mentions the stimulus bill, but doesn’t provide any actual evidence that it helped. It didn’t, as explained in this video. In other words, his argument fails to account for the very plausible explanation that Obama was merely less bad than Hoover. That Obama’s policies might not have done quite as much damage as Hoover, another big spending government interventionist, does not suggest he should be praised, merely that we could have done worse, if ever so slightly. But surely we can still do better.

Friday

16

October 2009

0

COMMENTS

What Do You Know About Herbert Hoover, Chris Matthews?

Written by , Posted in Economics & the Economy

I recently fired off this email to the insufferable Chris Matthews.

Mr. Matthews,

In talking about how government should respond to economic turmoil in your recent broadcast, you asked Phillip Dennis, “What did Hoover do?” You then claimed that he did “nothing.” This is simply false.

Herbert Hoover was an interventionist president who paved the way for many of the programs later seen and loudly trumpeted under FDR. Federal spending increased 57 percent in Hoover’s four-year term, according to the OMB. In fact, FDR campaigned against Hoover’s big spending, much in the way that Obama did against Bush’s, only to commit to far more himself, again as Obama has done.

The idea that Hoover was a laissez-faire president is a popular myth in liberal circles, but it has no basis in reality. Recessions came and went fairly quickly prior to Hoover, back when laissez-faire actually was the accepted policy. It was only when government began interfering that a recession became a depression. It was Hoover’s meddling that created the Great Depression, and FDR’s that made it last so long. In addition to his disastrous tariffs, Hoover implemented price controls and drastically increased government spending. UCLA professor Lee E. Ohanian recently concluded that “By keeping industrial wages too high, Hoover sharply depressed employment beyond where it otherwise would have been… His policy was the single most important event in precipitating the Great Depression.”

Here’s how Herbert Hoover described his own policies while running for reelection:

“We might have done nothing. That would have been utter ruin. Instead we met the situation with proposals to private business and to Congress of the most gigantic program of economic defense and counterattack ever evolved in the history of the Republic.”

And here he is again in his memoirs:

“We developed cooperation between the federal, state, and municipal governments to increase public works. We persuaded employers to “divide” time among their employees so that as many as possible would have some incomes. We organized the industries to undertake renovation, repair, and, where possible, expand construction.”

Does that sound laissez-faire to you? Or does it more closely resemble the Keynesian claptrap advocated by Barack Obama and yourself? The facts are simply not on your side. I challenge you to educate yourself, or to have on someone knowledgeable about Herbert Hoover, such as professor Ohanian, instead of ambushing people with your factually deficient accounts of history.

Regards,

Brian Garst