BrianGarst.com

Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

Health Care, Welfare & Entitlements Archive

Friday

7

January 2011

1

COMMENTS

What You Need to Know About CBO Scoring

Written by , Posted in Big Government, Health Care, Welfare & Entitlements, Taxes

Claims that Obamacare would reduce the deficit ought never to have passed the laugh test, but because the bill was written specifically to game the CBO score, many think repealing it will actually add to the deficit. This is wrong. To understand why, you need to know a little bit about how CBO operates.

First, CBO stands for the Congressional Budget Office. It is part of the legislative branch. It is not, therefore, independent of politics. Both chambers of Congress appoint the Director of the CBO, but he can be removed by a simple resolution of either chamber. In other words, he has a strong incentive to ensure that his organization produces research that pleases politicians. This means, among other things, a heavy bias toward tax and spend policies.

Here’s an example of a CBO double standard that favors big government. When it comes to tax rates, CBO uses a baseline known as current law. This means, for instance, that when the Bush tax rates were extended, CBO said this “cost” money because they were set to expire under existing law, even though the rates were not changed from what they were last year. But when it comes to government spending, CBO takes an entirely different approach. Rather than current law, they use current policy. If a spending program is set to expire under current law, CBO will go ahead and count it as being continued in the baseline because that is the current policy, thus ensuring that there is no “cost” to extending the program. CBO may be “non-partisan,” but that doesn’t prevent its methodology from being ideological.

Second, CBO is significantly constrained in what it can analyze by law. It must respond to requests and bills as they are presented by Congress. It doesn’t matter, for instance, if Congress tells CBO they will not pass some recurring expense down the road despite the fact that they always have in the past, CBO must take them at their word and score any current legislation in front of them accordingly. It is a garbage-in-garbage-out organization. As you can imagine, this can lead to analysis that is near useless in the real world where politicians routinely say one thing and do another.

Third, CBO’s analytical methodology is opaque and historically inaccurate. Despite the current level of unemployment, for instance, CBO has constantly claimed ridiculous job creation numbers as a result of Obama’s stimulus. These same models have failed to accurately predict the observed data.  CBO’s Director confessed that they used Keynesian models to score the stimulus, which guarantees the result merely based on the policy, and not from any observed data. It doesn’t matter what the real world data shows, CBO’s model will always show the stimulus as producing millions of jobs. Who are you going to believe, so to speak, their Keynesian models or your lying eyes?

Yet here we sit, with the faux-authority of the CBO being used to beat anyone over the head who understands that you can’t nationalize health care and expand coverage without significantly increasing costs. I’d suggest that CBO is in need of serious reform, but that’s been the case for decades and it hasn’t happened. Given the likelihood that it won’t happen in the decades ahead either, it’s probably best to just abolish the organization altogether. Between Congressional offices and non-profit think-tanks, there are more than enough outfits capable of analyzing the economic costs of legislation, and at least when these other organizations do it, there isn’t a false pretense that their numbers are beyond reproach. No numbers are beyond reproach and no is methodology above criticism, no matter how desperately the proponents of big government try to claim otherwise.

Wednesday

29

December 2010

1

COMMENTS

The Danger of ‘Death Panels’

Written by , Posted in Big Government, Health Care, Welfare & Entitlements

That whole issue of “death panels” is back:

On Sunday, Robert Pear reported in the New York Times that Medicare will now pay for voluntary end-of-life counseling as part of seniors’ annual physicals. A similar provision was originally included in ObamaCare, but Democrats stripped it out amid the death panel furor. Now Medicare will enact the same policy through regulation.

We hadn’t heard about this development until Mr. Pear’s story, but evidently Medicare tried to prevent the change from becoming public knowledge. The provision is buried in thousands of Federal Register pages setting Medicare’s hospital and physician price controls for 2011 and concludes that such consultations count as a form of preventative care.

The office of Oregon Democrat Earl Blumenauer, the author of the original rider who then lobbied Medicare to cover the service, sent an email to supporters cheering this “victory” but asked that they not tell anyone for fear of perpetuating “the ‘death panel’ myth.” The email added that “Thus far, it seems that no press or blogs have discovered it, but we will be keeping a close watch.”

Anytime proponents of a policy are cheering the fact that no one knows about it, there’s cause for concern. But with the rhetoric so heated, it’s not always clear what, exactly, the concern is here. So let’s break it down.

Those who criticize conservatives for talking about “death panels” say that end-of-life counseling is an important service that should be available to those who want it. So far so good. Elderly or terminally ill patients have very difficult decisions to make, decisions which might not always result in more treatment. It is only prudent that they would seek the advice of their doctors for such matters.

If that was the end of the story, those decrying talk of “death panels” might technically be right. But here’s where the legitimate concerns come in.

With passage of ObamaCare, government has become an even larger stakeholder in virtually all medical decisions. What you personally decide as a participant in Medicare impacts the government’s bottom line, and thus also the ability of politicians looking to bolster their fiscally irresponsible images to get reelected.

Government additionally has a lot more power than other stakeholders. It has a lot more than the doctors, who rely on the stream of Medicare payments to stay afloat, and certainly more than you, the patient. So as time goes on, whose interests do you think are going to be served?

The only way to prevent politicians from expanding the role of government in end-of-life counseling is to not give it a role in the first place. This is why it was so concerning when such provisions popped up in ObamaCare, a bill that expanded the government role in health care across the board.

From what I hear, the new regulations seem less concerning than the initial provision. Unlike what was attempted with ObamaCare, these regulations provide no prescriptions concerning the content of end-of-life discussion, but merely allow that they will be covered under Medicare. I’m thus tentatively willing to consider that they may not be of significant concern.

However, liberal critics ignore legitimate concerns when they dismiss discussion of “death panels” as nothing more than overblown political rhetoric. There are very real dangers from allowing the government both a financial incentive to deny medical care and the authority to make it happen. I can think of few easier targets for a government looking to save money than elderly patients weighing whether or not they should continue receiving expensive medical treatments to extend their lives just a little bit longer.

Monday

13

December 2010

1

COMMENTS

Court Recognizes the Obvious: Individual Mandate Unconstitutional

Written by , Posted in Health Care, Welfare & Entitlements, The Courts, Criminal Justice & Tort

U.S. District Judge Henry E. Hudson has delivered as expected and ruled that the individual mandate is unconstitutional (the full ruling is available here). Even under the modern Commerce Clause jurisprudence, which itself has long ago turned the clear meaning of clause on its head, there has never been recognized any legal authority compelling individuals to purchase a particular good or service.

The oddity of the ruling is that it didn’t throw out the entire law, despite the lack of a severability clause in the original bill (which would make provisions for severing clauses found unconstitutional so that the bill itself could remain intact). As a practical matter, however, the lack of an individual mandate scuttles the entire affair. The question now is: what will the higher courts do?

Wednesday

17

November 2010

0

COMMENTS

That's Not What Happened

Written by , Posted in Health Care, Welfare & Entitlements

Greg Sargent at the Washington Post reports and comments on the new book by Richard Wolff, which quotes Rahm as being anti-bipartisanship.  This is not news, as the very fact that Obama brought Rahm on board was enough to convince any thinking person that the President did not really believe his own unifying campaign rhetoric. More interesting to me is Sargent’s recounting of the health care debate:

The decision to waste time chasing bipartisan support for health reform was clearly one of the mistakes that led to health care being such a big political liability for Dems. It extended the whole mess by months and months, which gave opponents more time to demagogue the bill and scare voters and helped turn the public against the process.

Sargent is presenting a fictional account of events. No bipartisanship was ever sought on health care. That’s not what Democrats were doing. The reason it took so long is because they couldn’t get their own caucus to agree on what to include. At no point did they ever sincerely attempt to bring Republicans into the process.

Thursday

23

September 2010

0

COMMENTS

Government Insurance Meddling Costs Kids Coverage

Written by , Posted in Government Meddling, Health Care, Welfare & Entitlements

Consider this a prelude to Obamacare:

Tens of thousands of Texas children will be directly affected by the 11th-hour decision of a number of major health insurance companies to stop selling child-only policies rather than comply with the new federal law that requires they cover youngsters with pre-existing conditions.

…Spokespersons for Aetna and Cigna said the change was made to keep family coverage affordable for as many people as possible and avoid significant price hikes. They said that under the new law, people suddenly seeking coverage would predominantly be those who need to consume healthcare services immediately for known, high-cost conditions.

Some people may find this hard to believe, but insurers are a business.  Like any other business, if they lose money while doing something, they will opt not to do it anymore.  So when government makes covering certain people a losing proposition, it is government that has caused them to lose their coverage. Keep that in mind when the statists inevitable respond to such developments with calls for yet more government intervention and control.

Saturday

4

September 2010

0

COMMENTS

Smoke for the Motherland

Written by , Posted in Health Care, Welfare & Entitlements, Taxes

Excise taxes, where government taxes the sale of particular goods, are usually levied with the excuse that consumption of a good or engagement in a certain activity is harmful for individuals. If this were actually true, you’d expect government bureaucrats to be happy when activities hit by excise taxes decreased – not that government has any business trying to discourage such activities. But as this story from Russia shows, they just want the money.

Russia’s finance minister Alexei Kudrin urged citizens Wednesday to smoke and drink more to help lift tax revenues for spending on social services.

“If you smoke a pack of cigarettes, that means you are giving more to help solve social problems such as boosting demographics, developing other social services and upholding birth rates,” Kudrin said, quoted by the Interfax news agency.

“People should understand: Those who drink, those who smoke are doing more to help the state,” he said.

As I recall, it didn’t turn out too well the last time Russia asked its citizens to prioritize the collective good above their own choices and freedoms.

Wednesday

4

August 2010

0

COMMENTS

Rejected: Missouri Gives Obamacare A Resounding No

Written by , Posted in Health Care, Welfare & Entitlements, The Courts, Criminal Justice & Tort, The Nanny State & A Regulated Society

As I predicted back in December, the fight over Obamacare has moved to the states.  Several big developments have hit recently which do not bode well for supporters of unconstitutionally government-run health care.

First, a Federal District Court Judge Henry Hudson rejected the government’s attempt to dismiss Virginia’s lawsuit against Obamacare (full decision here).  The establishment line was that legal challenges to Obamacare were just partisan grandstanding, and that of course government has the power to tax a non-economic non-activity through the Commerce Clause.  They were wrong as Judge Hudson noted that Obamacare’s constitutional argument “literally forges new ground and extends Commerce Clause powers beyond its current high watermark.”  Whether or not the court eventually reaches the right conclusion and declares Obamacare’s individual mandate to be unconstitutional remains to be seen, but this is an important first step.

On top of this, the voters in Missouri turned out yesterday to give Obamacare their disapproval.

Tuesday’s 71 to 29 percent blowout vote on Proposition C left no doubt where voters stand as they handed President Obama’s health care law a stunning rejection.

The proposition attempts to protect Missourians from the new federal mandate to buy insurance.

It also tries overturning the new federal prohibitions on insurance companies selling insurance directly to people.

This is just the beginning of the long fight against massive government expansion and government-run healthcare.  But so far, the battles are being won by the side of smart policy and Constitutional governance.

Friday

2

July 2010

0

COMMENTS

Pelosi: Paying People Not To Work Creates Jobs

Written by , Posted in Economics & the Economy, Health Care, Welfare & Entitlements, The Nanny State & A Regulated Society

I’ve heard a few economic whoppers in my time, especially from the mouths of politicians, but this statement by Speaker Pelosi has got to be one of the most foolish yet.

Talking to reporters, the House speaker was defending a jobless benefits extension against those who say it gives recipients little incentive to work. By her reasoning, those checks are helping give somebody a job.

“It injects demand into the economy,” Pelosi said, arguing that when families have money to spend it keeps the economy churning. “It creates jobs faster than almost any other initiative you can name.”

This is the same Keynesian clap-trap that claims you can “stimulate” the economy through government spending.  It’s the same theory that created a “lost decade” in Japan as they tried one Keynesian stimulus after another throughout the 1990’s.  It’s the same theory behind the 2008 Bush rebate checks, which did not spur growth, and the Obama stimulus, which did not spur growth.

You don’t have to be completely against some degree of unemployment insurance, as a cushion against economic hardship, to recognize that there has to be a balance between safety nets and the danger of creating a disincentive for work. When you subsidize something, you get more of it.  When you pay people not to work, you’re going to have more people not working.  Jobless benefits have to be finite; they can’t simply go on forever.

The length of the unemployment benefits granted so far is already unprecedented, so it’s not surprising that we’ve seen evidence that people are choosing to stay on the dole rather than to take work.  It is ludicrous for Speaker Pelosi to now argue that further encouraging such mooching is actually creating jobs.  The only real job she’s interested in creating (or saving in this case) is her own.  She clearly thinks that continuing to handout other people’s money is the best way for her and her party to stay in power.  Only time well tell whether she is right on that account.

Wednesday

26

May 2010

0

COMMENTS

With Help Like This

Written by , Posted in Health Care, Welfare & Entitlements

Obama promised to help businesses with his health care plan.  They are bearing the burden of our high cost system, he said.   Well, businesses don’t feel helped:

The benefits consultant surveyed 661 companies this month and found that 94 percent of those that responded believe the law passed by Congress this year will raise costs. Eighty-eight percent plan to pass the increases on to employees, and 74 percent anticipate reducing health benefits and programs.

…The survey also found that 43 percent of employers that offer retiree benefits expect to reduce or eliminate them.

With help like this, who needs harm?

Hat-tip: HotAir

Tuesday

20

April 2010

0

COMMENTS

They Can Pry The Salt Shaker From My Cold, Dead Hands

Written by , Posted in Health Care, Welfare & Entitlements, The Nanny State & A Regulated Society

The nannies have set their sights on another target: salt.

The Food and Drug Administration is planning an unprecedented effort to gradually reduce the salt consumed each day by Americans, saying that less sodium in everything from soup to nuts would prevent thousands of deaths from hypertension and heart disease. The initiative, to be launched this year, would eventually lead to the first legal limits on the amount of salt allowed in food products.

…Officials have not determined the salt limits. In a complicated undertaking, the FDA would analyze the salt in spaghetti sauces, breads and thousands of other products that make up the $600 billion food and beverage market, sources said. Working with food manufacturers, the government would set limits for salt in these categories, designed to gradually ratchet down sodium consumption. The changes would be calibrated so that consumers barely notice the modification.

The legal limits would be open to public comment, but administration officials do not think they need additional authority from Congress.

Not only has the conventional wisdom on salt flip-flopped repeatedly over the decades, but even the most recent research is entirely ambiguous.

It’s also disturbing that the FDA thinks they can do this without additional Congressional authority.  It’s even more disturbing in that they may be right according to modern Constitutional understanding.

Remember, Obamacare has only given them more excuse to regulate your choices regarding anything that might plausibly be said to affect your health.