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Economics & the Economy Archive

Thursday

20

January 2011

0

COMMENTS

States War on Business

Written by , Posted in Big Government, Economics & the Economy, Free Markets, Taxes, The Nanny State & A Regulated Society

Why any entrepreneur would try to make a living for themselves in a state like New York or Illinois is beyond me. Maybe it’s just because I’ve never really gotten the allure of big cities, but why would anyone subject themselves to the rule of such petty bureaucratic tyrants?  The big government regulatory states have no respect for those seeking to earn a living, so not find somewhere that does?  Take this story:

…”They told us we had to move or we’d be towed,” Loera explained as the cops rigged the food truck to the tow truck.

They gave Paty’s truck a $55 summons saying it was not allowed to sell merchandise from a metered spot, Loera said. His mother, Patricia Monroy, who does not speak English, made the ultimate decision to stay put once her family translated what the cops were saying.

“My mother felt like she was not breaking the law,” Loera said. “We still had 45 minutes on the meter.”

…Loera had reached out to the Street Vendor Project after his Nov. 30 arrest, and members of the organization joined Paty’s for Tuesday’s return to raise awareness on issues vendors face: harassment from law enforcement and city offices, a harsh ticketing system and excessive punishment and regulations confusing to vendors and cops alike.

But no one anticipated the towing.

“Even if they were breaking parking rules — and I don’t think they were because I don’t think food is merchandise — that’s why they get a ticket. But that’s not a worth a tow,” Basinski said.

…The food truck was careful to follow parking rules, Loera said. It arrived on the Upper East Side about 10:15 a.m., changing spots about 11 a.m. and again an hour later.

Loera and his mother, who was tearing as the truck was being towed, hopped in a cab to follow it. They did not want a repeat of the last towing, when all of their perishables and other items — including its generator — had been removed from the truck, Loera said.

After they paid the $370 to get their truck back in November, they had to take out a $5,000 loan so they could restart the business that provides the livelihood for six families, Loera said.

And what was the basis of the complaints against the truck?

Paty’s had faced the ire of several residents on Community Board 8, who complain about food trucks in the area. They worry the trucks are illegally hogging metered parking spots and that they are unfairly competing with struggling brick-and-mortar stores.

Hogging metered spots? I’m sorry, but weren’t they paying for them just like anyone else? If the prices aren’t reflecting market value, then raise them. But there’s no basis to complain about people who are paying those prices. Unfair competition? Unfair that they made products that people wanted more than other products? How dare they!

Silly immigrants, they thought they were coming to America because it was free, but there’s no place in America for earning an honest living by providing services that people want. If you aren’t working for the government, your work isn’t legitimate.

Other states, like Illinois, are content to just tax their business into leaving. Some states understand the incentives created by tax and spend policies run amok. Take this statement by Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker:

Wisconsin is open for business. In these challenging economic times while Illinois is raising taxes, we are lowering them. On my first day in office I called a special session of the legislature, not in order to raise taxes, but to open Wisconsin for business. Already the legislature is taking up bills to provide tax relief to small businesses, to create a job-friendly legal environment, to lessen the regulations that stifle growth and to expand tax credits for companies that relocate here and grow here. Years ago Wisconsin had a tourism advertising campaign targeted to Illinois with the motto, ‘Escape to Wisconsin.’ Today we renew that call to Illinois businesses, ‘Escape to Wisconsin.’ You are welcome here. Our talented workforce stands ready to help you grow and prosper.

The Associated Press, on the other hand, sneers at the idea that high taxes will drive anyone out of Illinois (Hat-tip: Tax Foundation):

But economic experts scoffed at images of highways packed with moving vans as businesses leave Illinois. Income taxes are just one piece of the puzzle when businesses decide where to locate or expand, they said, and states should be cooperating instead trying to poach jobs from one another.

It’s true that taxes are just one piece of the puzzle, but it’s not like Illinois has paired its high tax policies with a business-friendly regulatory regime. Nor is this a small change, as Illinois has moved from the 21st to the 46th highest corporate tax rates among states. I’ll ignore for now the assertion that states should not be competing to produce good policy, and point out instead this story (Hat-tip: Reason):

The founder of Jimmy John’s said he has applied for Florida residency and may recommend that his corporate headquarters move out-of-state as a result of the Illinois tax increases enacted last week.

Jimmy John Liautaud told The News-Gazette on Tuesday that he is angry about the moves, which boosted the individual income tax from 3 percent to 5 percent and the corporate income tax from 7.3 percent to 9.5 percent.

“All they do is stick it to us,” he said, adding that the Legislature and governor showed “a clear lack of understanding.”

A lack of understanding apparently shared by the alleged economists unearthed by AP.

Is it any wonder why these states are economic and fiscal basket cases?

Sunday

19

December 2010

3

COMMENTS

Do Not Fear the Chinese Economy

Written by , Posted in Economics & the Economy, Free Markets

Hand-wringing over Chinese economic growth is both common and bipartisan. Commentators and politicians from the left and right alike find something fearsome in the rise of China as an economic force to be reckoned with. From Paul Krugman to Pat Buchanan, we are told to be concerned. Be very concerned. But these concerns are almost entirely based on faulty economics, and are therefore misplaced.

Before I get into some of the specific arguments, I want to make a simple point that few seem to truly accept: the economic success of another is not your failure. There is no set, fixed pie of wealth.  We are not “falling behind” just because the Chinese economy is growing faster (and why shouldn’t it be when they have so much farther to climb?). The left can be somewhat excused for not seeing how this applies to China since they don’t even see how it applies among Americans, but the right does get it domestically, by and large. This is why I get frustrated to see Chinese economic scaremonger from the right as well as the left.  The rhetoric surrounding the rise of China mirrors closely the fearmongering over Japanese growth that was so common throughout the 80’s. Needless to say, the fear proved ill-founded, as the Japanese economy collapsed in 1989, and subsequent dabbling in Keynesian stimulus policies condemned the nation to a “Lost Decade” of stagnation.

Now the next great Asian threat is China. And the primary cause of this threat is their so-called “currency manipulation.” China, we are told, is unfairly devaluing its currency and thus boosting exports. This costs America jobs and harms the US economy. Sounds plausible enough, right? In fact, it was this reasoning that led to  bipartisan support for recent legislation granting President Obama  “expanded authority to impose tariffs on virtually all Chinese imports to the United States.” I doubt any supporters of the legislation stopped to consider how well it turned out the last time tariffs were imposed in the midst of an economic slump.

The currency-manipulation argument sounds plausible enough, but it’s not actually valid.  It is a common protectionist misconception that exports are benefits and imports are the price we pay to export goods and create jobs. This view is entirely backwards. In fact, exports are the price we must pay in order to get the goods we desire. When you go into a store, your goal is invariably to minimize what you must export (pay) for what you wish to import (buy). The more you can get for less, the better. It is no different on a national scale. There is no more reason to complain about cheap goods offered from China than there is to complain about bargains from Best Buy or Barnes and Noble.

Consider the impact of a devalued Chinese yuan (assuming it actually is devalued, which is debatable). Chinese workers are payed with a currency worth less than it otherwise would be, giving them less purchasing power and thus making them poorer. US consumers, on the other hand, get more Chinese goods for a cheaper price than they otherwise would. This is essentially a subsidy of American consumption by the Chinese worker. We are the winners and they are the losers in this arrangement.

“But wait,” I can hear the mercantilists saying, “what about the lost American jobs? What good are cheaper trinkets if we have no jobs and no income!”

Why, dear mercantilist, do you assume that we would have no jobs? Sure, there will inevitably be some particular jobs lost by any influx of cheap Chinese goods, but that’s true of all trade regardless of who it is with or the valuation of their currency. Even in the strongest economy, tens of millions of jobs are lost every year. Uncompetitive sectors close down and new ones rise up. Most people don’t see this, however, because economic statistics only report net job changes. Hiding behind these figures are a dynamic system of destruction and creation. Jobs producing goods which we can get cheaper elsewhere are lost, while jobs making new goods and providing new services are added. When the Chinese subsidize a product, allowing US consumers to buy it cheaper than American manufacturers can make it, it frees up labor to be utilized elsewhere.  We then benefit both from that labor and the cheap Chinese goods, which grows our economy.

There is no set number of products throughout the entire world that can be manufactured, for which all countries must then compete. Economic activity is not a race to grab a fixed pie, it’s a cooperative endeavor to grow the pie. New products and services are invented everyday, and the less it costs us to get existing products, measured in either dollars or labor, the more that is available for expansion elsewhere. The  industrial revolution was only possible after most agriculture jobs were “lost” to greater productivity.

Outside of the strictly economic arguments, there are some legitimate concerns about China. The share of American debt held by China, and its possible usage to strong-arm the US on matters of defense, is at least arguably problematic. I’m not staking a position on this point either way, but even if we assume the concerns to be legitimate, the problem is not the value of the Chinese currency, nor even the dynamics of trade between the US and China, but the size of the debt itself. They can only buy so much of our debt because we have so much debt in the first place, after all. Assuming Chinese ownership of American debt is problematic, the correct solution is not to hamstring our economy with protectionism, but to reduce government spending!

Furthermore, if you believe China will use its greater wealth to challenge US interests military, then that’s fine. I’m not attempting to address their political or military motivations here. What I am doing is challenging the notion that they are some how cheating us economically, or that trade with China is being manipulated against us. That couldn’t be further from the truth.

China is going to grow economically whether we like it or not. Their population is several times larger than ours, providing them that much more labor to tap. The reason we remain a wealthier country despite this disparity is our free economic system. One important characteristic of this system has been free trade. Let’s not start hacking away at the principles that have made us so prosperous in a futile effort to stop anyone else from becoming so. But if you’re still fearing the growth of China, then let me help you get a head start on the next big economic threat: India will surpass China in population by 2025.

Sunday

12

December 2010

0

COMMENTS

Don’t Fall Into the Keynesian, Demand-Side Trap

Written by , Posted in Economics & the Economy, Liberty & Limited Government, Taxes

This post from Pejman Yousefzadeh on the tax deal is a few days old, but it’s worth talking about because it illustrates a trap into which conservatives too often fall. His point is that the temporary extension of the tax rates likely will not help the economy. I don’t dispute this, as whatever benefit the tax rate extension provides comes from the fact that it means taxes won’t be going up. It’s good only insofar as it prevents politicians from doing something really bad, at least for another 2 years.

What I take issue with is his reasoning. Here’s what he says:

The thing is, a temporary extension of the Bush tax cuts will not be enough to stimulate the economy. Per Milton Friedman’s permanent income hypothesis, consumption patters (sic) even in the aftermath of a temporary extension of the Bush tax cuts will be tempered by long term expectations that eventually, the tax cuts may be allowed to expire. As a consequence, consumers are more apt to save money that comes from a temporary tax cut, rather than spending it in order to offer the economy any kind of economic stimulus.

My problem is his implication that the primary benefits from cutting taxes comes from increases in consumption.  This is essentially the Keynesian view of economic growth. It is this consumption-based view of growth which has led both Bush and Obama to try “stimulating” the economy through gimmick rebates and handouts. Each attempt has failed more miserably than the last.

Just to be clear, I’m not disputing Friedman’s permanent income hypothesis (that personal decisions on spending are based not on current income, but long-term expectations),  just its relevance to this situation. It’s not germane here because even if it were not true and consumption would increase in response to a temporary extension, it wouldn’t have any significant pro-growth impact. Otherwise, the other stimulus attempts would have worked.

The benefit from lowering tax rates, particularly those on capital, comes when it reduces government disincentives to savings, investment and entrepreneurship. Increased consumption is just the consequences of growing the economy. To see it as something to try to increase in its own right is to implicitly admit the validity of the Keynesian, interventionist approach which has never worked.

Wednesday

8

December 2010

1

COMMENTS

Kamikaze Democrats

Written by , Posted in Economics & the Economy, Taxes

As has been widely publicized, the White House and Congressional Republicans have forged a compromise that will prevent tax rates from going up at the end of the year (except for the death tax which will return with a 35% with a $5 million exemption).  In exchange for extending the current individual, capital gains and dividends rates for 2 more years for all Americans, Republicans agreed to support another year’s worth of unemployment benefits (which will reduce employment) and some various tax credits, which will do nothing. Overall, compared to what would happen if capital gains and dividends rate went up, this is a good deal. It’s certainly not the best policy (permanent extension would do a lot more to reduce uncertainty), but it’s better than tax increases (even, yes, on the wealthy).

It’s hard to see what democrats can really complain about either. They get their entitlements, and even by CBO’s gimmick accounting (where keeping tax rates the same has “costs”) most of the bill’s costs still comes from their entitlements, so they cannot complain about that. So why are so many so pissed off that they’re willing to try and scuttle the deal, taking America’s economy down with it?

The only explanation that makes any sense is that they’ve backed themselves into a corner with a decades worth of nonsensical class warfare demagoguery. They’ve falsely blamed Bush’s rate cuts “for the wealthy” (I’d point out for them yet again that Bush made the tax code more progressive, and not less so, but we all know I’d be wasting my time with these people) for everything from spending induced deficits to the financial crisis. Most of them probably really didn’t even believe this crap, but class warfare sells. Why argue for policy based on principle or careful analysis when you can just get one group of Americans pissed off at another group?

Democrats weren’t always this way. JFK argued for significant tax cuts as a way to grow the economy, and he was right. But for the hard left, to not raise taxes now would be to admit that their last ten years worth of rhetoric was a lie. We all know it was, but they are desperate not to admit it. And to protect their baseless ideology, they’ll happily fly the class-warfare fighter into the American economic ship.

Monday

6

December 2010

2

COMMENTS

The Keynesian Stimulus Fallacy Refuses to Go Away

Written by , Posted in Economics & the Economy

They say that doing the same thing over and over again while expecting different results is the definition of insanity. If that is the case, then Keynesian politicians are completely bonkers.

Given the disappointing nature of the recent employment numbers, as well the ongoing failure of government “stimulus” plans to spur economic growth, you’d expect sane leaders to consider changing course. Yet just recently we’ve seen comments from Nancy Pelosi and Sherrod Brown touting the great stimulative qualities of jobless benefits – essentially a government subsidy of unemployment. Nor is this the first time Pelosi has made such remarks.

Now the White House is reportedly demanding yet another round of unemployment subsidies, along with a conglomeration of gimmicky tax credits which do nothing to lower marginal tax rates, before it will agree not to raise taxes in the midst of a recession. They should be more focused in providing an environment where jobs are likely to be created, rather than turning what was originally intended to be a temporary cushion into a permanent entitlement.

These leaders are in desperate need of a lesson in the fallacies of Keynesian economics, and it just so happens that one is available in the form of this recent video by the Center for Freedom and Prosperity, narrated by Hiwa Alaghebandian of the American Enterprise Institute:

Originally posted at American Thinker.

Monday

6

December 2010

0

COMMENTS

Suddenly They Don't Like Compromise

Written by , Posted in Economics & the Economy, Taxes

The news is indicating that the rumored tax compromise is now a done deal. Obama will accept that he must refrain from raising taxes in the midst of a sluggish economy, and in return Republicans will allow passage of an unprecedented third year for unemployment benefits, transforming the once temporary assistance program into a new permanent and never ending entitlement.

Some Democrats, and in particular Obama’s hard left base, are revolting.  Not being able to raise taxes is apparently where they draw their line in the sand (and to think they routinely manage to deny the label of tax and spend liberals with a straight face). It seems they really, deeply, truly wanted to take American down with the class-warfare ship.

But what I want to know is: what happened to the great benefits of compromise? For years these hard left radicals have feigned offense at the “partisan culture” of Washington that supposedly made compromise impossible. To hear them tell it, you’d have thought compromise was next only to godliness. But as soon as they are asked to do something so simple as not raise taxes when the unemployment rate is 9.8% in exchange for a massive handout and entitlement extension, they freak out.

True colors.

Wednesday

24

November 2010

2

COMMENTS

Insider Trading Should Be Legal

Written by , Posted in Economics & the Economy, The Nanny State & A Regulated Society

Fox News reports on an aggressive insider trading crackdown:

…Monday’s raids targeted three hedge funds: Level Global Investors in New York, Diamondback Capital Management in Stamford, Conn., and an address that matched Loch Capital Management in Boston. Federal law enforcement agencies would not comment other than to confirm an investigation.

Investors can use the expert networks to glean details of what’s occurring within certain industries or particular companies. Someone interested in learning more about fast-food dining in China, for example, might connect with local store managers, suppliers or experts on dining in the region.

The expert networks connect the investor and the source, getting a fee from the investor and then paying the source, who could make $400 to $500 an hour, says Sanford Bragg, CEO of the consulting firm Integrity Research Associates, which connects investors with these research firms.

Hedge funds have been paying people to dig for hard-to-find numbers on companies for years.

Tammer Kamel, president of Iluka Consulting Group Ltd. in Toronto, recalls visiting a Hong Kong fund 10 years ago that wanted to better gauge future sales by a company with factories in China. Its solution: Pay Chinese farmers near a company warehouse to count trucks leaving the site.

For a possible investment in a casino, another fund paid people to stand outside the casino and count visitors walking in, Kamel says. Then the fund multiplied that number by average losses per visitor to get a better sense of the casino’s daily take.

“The managers were openly discussing technique,” Kamel said. “They clearly thought it was just smart data gathering.”

Of course it is smart data gathering! Moreover, it’s good for markets and the economy when someone does this research. How would it be better to allow businesses to prohibit people from determining if a business is cooking its books? It is madness to say that markets should have less information because some squish thinks it is “unfair.” Attempting to regulate the distribution of information is silliness in the extreme.

I’ll allow Don Bordreaux to explain better than I can the benefits of insider trading:

Time to stop telling horror stories. Federal agents are wasting their time slapping handcuffs on hedge fund traders like Raj Rajaratnam, the financier charged last week with trading on nonpublic information involving IBM, Google and other big companies. The reassuring truth: Insider trading is impossible to police and helpful to markets and investors. Parsing the difference between legal and illegal insider trading is futile—and a disservice to all investors. Far from being so injurious to the economy that its practice must be criminalized, insiders buying and selling stocks based on their knowledge play a critical role in keeping asset prices honest—in keeping prices from lying to the public about corporate realities.

Prohibitions on insider trading prevent the market from adjusting as quickly as possible to changes in the demand for, and supply of, corporate assets. The result is prices that lie.

And when prices lie, market participants are misled into behaving in ways that harm not only themselves but also the economy writ large.

…Suppose that unscrupulous management drives Acme Inc. to the verge of bankruptcy. Being unscrupulous, Acme’s managers succeed for a time in hiding its perilous financial condition from the public. During this lying time, Acme’s share price will be too high. Investors will buy Acme shares at prices that conceal the company’s imminent doom. Creditors will extend financing to Acme on terms that do not compensate those creditors for the true risks that they are unknowingly undertaking. Perhaps some of Acme’s employees will turn down good job offers at other firms in order to remain at what they are misled to believe is a financially solid Acme Inc.

Eventually, of course, those misled investors, creditors and workers will suffer financial losses. But the economy as a whole loses, too. Capital that would otherwise have been invested in firms more productive than Acme Inc. never gets to those firms. So compared with what would have happened had people not been misled by Acme’s deceitfully high share price, those better-run firms don’t enhance their efficiencies as much. They don’t expand their operations as much. They don’t create as many good jobs. Consumers don’t enjoy the increased outputs, improved product qualities and lower prices that would otherwise have resulted.

In short, overall economic efficiency is reduced.

It’s in the public interest, therefore, that prices adjust as quickly and as completely as possible to underlying economic realities—that prices adjust to convey to market participants as clearly as possible the true state of those realities.

Wednesday

6

October 2010

0

COMMENTS

Monday

4

October 2010

0

COMMENTS

Monday

27

September 2010

0

COMMENTS