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A lot of talk was given to foreign policy during the recent Presidential campaign.  Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran dominated the debate, while little attention was given to the dangerous developments on the other side of our southern border, where both the number of incidents of drug-related violence and their severity have increased dramatically.  Mexican military and law enforcement personnel find themselves out-gunned by traffickers and gangs, while corruption plagues all levels of public and private life. The country is on the brink of a complete collapse that would have profound implications for U.S. national security.

Violence is taking an increasingly heavy toll in Mexico.  In 2005 there were more than 1,300 deaths to drug-related violence.  By 2007 that figure had doubled.  In 2008 it almost doubled again, with estimates of more than 4,500 deaths by mid-November.  The cartels are also becoming increasingly bold in their recruiting and tactics.  One group hung a banner on a major thoroughfare offering “good salary, food and benefits for your family.” Several grenade attacks have also been directed at police in the last week.  In one such attack, police attempted to apprehend several armed men spotted riding in a vehicle.  After the men fled to a nearby residence, they engaged police with grenades and RPG’s.

Corruption is also undermining the legitimacy of the governing authorities.  Drug cartels have subverted many local authorities and law enforcement, and public sentiment is becoming increasingly hostile toward authorities.  Multiple protests have broken out on claims that soldiers have been robbing, raping and murdering civilians.

The nation’s escalating instability poses significant security implications for the United States.  As the situation deteriorates, violence and fleeing civilians are likely to spread across the border. A failed state with a 2,000 mile border with the U.S. also poses a unique opportunity for well armed terrorists seeking to enter the U.S. As the flood of immigrants increases, it will become harder to protect from such breaches.

The underlying cause of the situation is clear. Our drug laws have created a lucrative black market that attracts the most ruthless criminal elements.  Just as the violence in Chicago ended after the end of Prohibition, so to can the violence in Mexico.  But so long as these powerful financial incentives remain, the violence and social collapse in Mexico will continue. In the short run, the situation may require a U.S. military presence on the border, but in the long run only a change in drug policy can allow Mexico to recover and protect America’s security interests on the southern border.

drug war Mexico